Forecasting for Decision Making: How to Test Business Decisions

🎙️ Speakers: Juan Orduz, Teemu Säilynoja, and Camilo Saldarriaga ⏰ Time: 13:00 UTC / 8:00 AM PT / 11:00 AM ET / 5:00 PM Berlin Your forecast says demand is up 8 percent next quarter. It still doesn't tell you whether to raise the price, place the order, or wait another month. That gap is where a lot of good analytics work quietly stalls. The model ships, the dashboard goes up, and the planning meeting still comes down to someone's judgment call, because the forecast was never built to answer the question being asked. In our experience, roughly 80 percent of the time someone asks for a forecasting model, what they actually need is a decision-making model. They can already see roughly where things are heading. What they can't do is test a decision before committing to it. That is what this session is about. We build forecasting models with enough business structure that the levers you actually control- price, spend, supply, exposure- sit inside the model. You move one and watch what happens, before it costs anything to find out. Juan Orduz walks through retail demand, where a run of zeros might mean nobody wanted it or might mean nobody had it, and the difference changes what you order. Camilo and Teemu go through oil price forecasting, with PyMC decision lab: an agentic tool that runs the scenarios and surfaces the recommendations for you. No Bayesian background needed. We will also introduce PyMC-Forecast, our new open-source forecasting package. Built for analytics and data science leaders, demand planners, pricing and marketing decision makers, quantitative researchers, and procurement analysts. You won't need to follow every model to know whether this applies to your business. Free to attend, with live Q&A. Everyone who registers gets the recording and the materials 📜 Outline of Talk / Agenda: * 5 min: Introduction to PyMC Labs and speakers * 40 min: Panel discussion * 15 min: Q&A ------------------ 📖 Code of Conduct: Please note that participants are expected to abide by PyMC's Code of Conduct. Connecting with PyMC Labs: 🌐 Website: https://www.pymc-labs.com/ 👥 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pymc-labs/ 🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/pymc_labs 🎥 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/PyMCLabs 🤝 Meetup: https://www.meetup.com/pymc-labs-online-meetup/ 🎮 Discord: https://discord.gg/MARSCNemw3