Forecasting AI: A Workshop with Superforecaster Jonathan Mann

Join us for an introductory forecasting workshop lead by Jonathan Mann for people interested in AI safety. We’ll learn how to make clear, testable predictions, assign probabilities, update our beliefs, and avoid common forecasting mistakes through practical exercises. No prior forecasting experience is required. We’ll use our knowledge to try to make forecasts on pressing topics related to the advance of AI. Jonathan Mann is a Good Judgment Superforecaster and a member of the forecasting group Samotsvety, which has published some of the most-cited probability estimates on AI risk and AGI timelines. He is a security architect in the financial sector and teaches computer science at NYU.